Ivory Coast – The Contrarian View

Almost every international body has condemned the incumbent and presumed loser of the recent Ivory Coast election: the African Union, the Economic Community of West African states (ECOWAS), the UN, many African countries, etc.   On the other hand, many of my own African friends and colleagues have voiced alternative views.   They have two main arguments. The first the assertion that there may have been widespread election fraud in the North, as asserted by incumbent and presumed loser, Laurent Gbagbo.  The that the margins of victory for the opposition in various constituencies of the North, it is claimed,  are too high to be believable, and in many places the voter registers were too large to inspire confidence in the process. 

The second part which bothers many is the belief that Ouattara is in the pocket of the French, who are exploiting the country unfairly.  As illustrations of the French connection, they point to the fact that

Ivory Coast – Declare Victory and Rule

In my earlier post on Ivory Coast, I praised the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for their boldness in suspending Ivory Coast from their bodies to protest the fact that the incumbent would not agree to leave.   Perhaps this was the wrong thing for the AU and ECOWAS to do.  Perhaps they should have kept Ivory Coast in and just recognize the winner of the poll – Allasane Ouattara.  Ouattara has asked governments to only recognize ambassadors he appoints, and he has asked the regional central bank, the BCEAO, to only respect his instructions regarding monetary issues and central bank transfers in Ivory Coast.   In an interesting blog post, Todd Moss at the Center for Global Development asks that one more door be shut to the incumbent and loser.   Todd and others argue in their post that Britain, France and the US, the main trading partners with Ivory Coast, should not honor any debts incurred by the incumbent government of Laurent Gbagbo.  This will mean Gbagbo can not borrow any money or ask foreign companies to pay up front for business concessions, thereby enabling him to survive financially.   If all these doors are closed to Gbagbo, Allasane Ouattara can declare victory and rule – which he is precisely what his game plan.  Perhaps the AU and ECOWAS should enable Outtara to do just that.   

Ivory Coast - Just Say No to the Incumbent and Loser of the Election

From all the information coming in, the opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara and his party clearly won the recent presidential elections in Cote D'Ivoire. The incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo lost, so should concede, and hand over power. Thabo Mbeki , the African Union (AU) mediator and former South African President should tell Gbagbo that, NO, he can not stay in power. No, he should not hope for a Kenya style power sharing agreement, for that would set an awful precedent on the continent. No, Gbagbo should not be pandered to, and allowed to hang on, as then all incumbents all over the continent upon losing elections will wait for an AU mediator.


It looks like things are on the right track. The AU has suspended Ivory Coast from the body. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has suspended Ivory Coast. The UN security council also thrown its support to Ouattara. President Obama has condemned Gbagbo. Ivory Coast shares a common currency, the CFA Franc, with several other African countries with a common issuing Central bank, the BCEAO, which has been asked to only honor orders from the Outtara group. There should be no excuses. Gbagbo must concede and leave. Let us see what happens next.

My rumblings on the BBC about the Millennium Development Goals (MDG's)

I was interviewed by the BBC, together with Olav Kjørven, Assistant Secretary General and Director of Development Policy at the UN Development Program. I listened to the mp3 file, it is the abridged version and I sound really in a bad mood. Maybe because it was 3am in Abu Dhabi? Maybe my real feelings about Aid and the MDGs? Ah well. Anyway, here is the 5 minute interview (it was aired at 0500 GMT on the 20th of September, 2010).

Some humor for my Intro to Econ Students in Abu Dhabi

Fear the boom and bust – Keynes versus Hayek

and

Stand Up Economist (from Greg Mankiw's Blog)

Mark Twain, Diamonds in Africa and a Fantastic Insider Trading Story

I have recently finished reading Mark Twain's "Following the Equator." The writing is of course wonderful - what a joy. Twain writes about his journey around the equator around 1896, and provides very insightful observations about the locals and western attitudes to the locals. There are a number of stories I particularly liked and which he told with great humor: the discovery of diamonds in South Africa and a fantastic insider trading story associated with Cecil Rhodes.

Portfolio's of the Poor - Book by my colleague Jonathan Morduch and others

I just made a pitch in a video for the great book "Portfolio's of the Poor" by my colleague Jonathan Morduch and others. It is great to have the poor of the world being treated as ordinary and everyday real people - making the best of bad infrastructure, lack of financial institutions and, of course, poverty. Too many portrayals make the poor seem like aliens from another planet. The book tracks individuals over time and records their decisions - primarily savings and financial decisions. It is great, it is about real people. I enjoyed reading it.

Kwame the Cabby, Brain Drain and Health

I took a cab this morning – it was a Ghanaian taxi driver. He remembered picking me up several years ago. What a memory he has. Anyway, he has 4 children, two older ones one of which is a doctor. He also has two younger kids in private school. All his kids seem to be doing exceptionally well, and he is paying for elite schooling from his taxi driver salary. Many have spoken about the positive effects of the brain drain. Kwame, this morning’s cabby, made those arguments real to me. Why do we never consider the benefits to the migrant when talking about the African brain drain? (See AidWatch blog.) I was so proud of all of Kwame's successes from what I know is an extremely difficult job.

Anyway, Kwame said he is glad to see me, but he nearly died this year. “Died?” I asked, not sure I heard him clearly through all the Manhattan traffic. Yes, he explained, he got malaria while in Ghana; it was cerebral malaria which was not properly treated.

I will be at dinner with the Minister of Health for Ghana this evening. I should tell the Minister that Kwame believes something should be done about the open sewers in the country and there should be more spraying (of insecticides) as was the case in the Nkrumah era.

I finally got off the taxi, and left a huge tip. I felt very proud of Kwame as I thought of his 4 children educated off his taxi earning. I also reminded myself to redo the calculations on the pluses and minuses of the Brain Drain to account for the Kwame’s.

Could the Brain Drain be Good for Africa?

Laura Freschi at The Aidwatchers blog just wrote a nice piece about my paper on the Brain Drain with Bill Easterly (http://aidwatchers.com/2010/02/four-ways-brain-drain/). The aidwatchers blog is the first I read each day, written by my Bill and Laura Freschi. Enjoy their blog – it is great.

It’s Education, Stupid

Bill Clinton coined the phrase “It’s the Economy, Stupid” as a campaign slogan when running against George Bush, Snr. The Mayor of Accra (see my blog from yesterday), Hon. Alfred Vanderpuye has made Education the center of his plans for the city of Accra. He talks very passionately about the fact that elementary school students in Accra are being shortchanged on their education because of the shift system. I presume this is the fact that there are two shifts for students which causes two kinds of problems. First, students are not getting enough hours of schooling – he wants to get the hours to 8 per day from the current 4. Second, since there are different shifts students are able to conceal the fact that they have not been in school at all for the day, in either shift.

Could it be that many of the problems of Accra, perhaps of Ghana, are due to the low levels of education of substantial numbers of people? Will there be a big impact on the economy when the Mayors future cohorts of 8-hour a day students hit the job market? Well, all that remains to be seen. This Mayor has placed his bets on this. As a seasoned politician, I suspect he knows that this will go over very well with the Accra residents (and therefore, ultimate, his electorate). So, perhaps indeed it’s Education, stupid.

My breakfast meeting with the mayor of Accra

Tomorrow morning I will be at a breakfast meeting with his Excellency the mayor of Accra, the capital of Ghana and the city of my youth. If there is any city I identify with, other than New York where I currently live, it is Accra where I was born and raised, and lived through and after college.

There was a time I thought it would be really cool to be the mayor of Accra. The city is large, and complex, and a whole lot of fun. Ghanaians are always laughing, cracking jokes and making fun of each other. The highlife nightclubs in Accra are really lots of fun. It is one of the safest cities I know - I drive through the city regularly at very late hours feeling extremely safe and comfortable. So, I figured at the time, Accra would be a manageable entity, fun, and yet a place where you could possibly do extremely well by the residents. It would be a great place to be mayor.

Accra is a city of, I hear, some 2 or 3 million people. A large city, but not a mega city like many others – Mexico City, Mumbai, or even Nairobi. Because almost all the building are have one, two or three floors, the city is extremely manageable.

Anyway, back to the mayor I am having breakfast with tomorrow. He is Alfred Vanderpuye, a member of the ruling National Democratic Party of Ghana. What are some of the things I should say to him tomorrow?

First, in coming to the US, he should continually remind himself (and his hosts) that Accra is a culturally rich, colorful and vibrant city. It is my favorite city. Too often African leaders come to the US hoping to get some kind of charity and completely destroy the image of Africa. So, Honorable Mayor, please do not do this to the city of my birth. Please tell the people of America about the great things about the city. It is peaceful – there is no war going on in Accra! Serious, I am sure you will be asked this. Some parts of Accra are really gorgeous – the old colonial style houses in Cantoments and Airport residential area; the beautiful waters of the Atlantic Ocean; the fishing areas of Jamestown.

On the other hand, as you, Honorable Mayor, know very well, there is a lot to be done in the city. I will stay away from some of the larger national issues – water, electricity and general poverty of large sections of the population. Here is a list of some of the things I believe that you, as mayor, should and can do.

a. Clean up the city: I am told that Kigali, the capital of Rwanda is now one of the cleanest cities in Africa, perhaps the world, because of conscious efforts at the top (like banning the use of plastic disposable bags). The lonely planet, one of the authoritative guidebooks for tourists said that Accra is "Ugly, chaotic, sprawling and completely indifferent to its waterfront location." So, honorable mayor, please spruce up the city. On that note, here is my second request:
b. Can someone explain why the gutters in Accra are not covered? I was told there is a scientific reason for this – or is it purely financial? It really is an eyesore, probably a breeding ground for mosquitoes and many other creatures which will remain nameless. My untrained mind says – "gutters already built, city close to Atlantic Ocean, so why are the gutters so disgusting?" Lee Kuan Yew, the big Man of Singapore, mentions in his autobiography that one of the first things he did to bring business to the country was to clean it up. I am sure the residents of Accra would also really appreciate not having to smell that Accra gutter smell.
c. Another theme from Lee Kuan Yew: how about a greening campaign for the city – build lots of trees and plants everywhere. Yes, it is so surprising that the city in a damp tropical area is often so incredibly dusty. I know, I am beginning to sound so bourgeois and this will be a hard sell for your residents. Yet, Nana Konadu Rawlings, the former First Lady has been a big champion of this for years. Singapore is an incredibly clean city, part of which is due to the greening campaign. And, Honorable mayor, do not forget that this is also good for tourism and for foreign investment, and, most importantly for the residents of Accra!
d. Back to those nightclubs: Why not start a highlife carnival in Accra, to put the spotlight on Ghanaian and African music. We have a wonderful heritage in music, and I think this could be something that would attract lots of tourists which in turn would generate income for your city's residents. It could also help the local music industry which is currently focused too much on hiplife (rap music in the local language), which probably could use some infusion of new ideas from Ghana's past.

So, Honorable Mayor, above are a few easy schemes for you. If you really get ambitious how about designing an accessible heart of Accra, with areas where people can freely walk without getting hit by cars – a downtown, or central area with bars and clubs? Think of a larger and more indigenous version of Accra's Oxford Street. Anyway, see you tomorrow, Honorable Mayor.