Ivory Coast – The Contrarian View

Almost every international body has condemned the incumbent and presumed loser of the recent Ivory Coast election: the African Union, the Economic Community of West African states (ECOWAS), the UN, many African countries, etc.   On the other hand, many of my own African friends and colleagues have voiced alternative views.   They have two main arguments. The first the assertion that there may have been widespread election fraud in the North, as asserted by incumbent and presumed loser, Laurent Gbagbo.  The that the margins of victory for the opposition in various constituencies of the North, it is claimed,  are too high to be believable, and in many places the voter registers were too large to inspire confidence in the process. 

The second part which bothers many is the belief that Ouattara is in the pocket of the French, who are exploiting the country unfairly.  As illustrations of the French connection, they point to the fact that

Ivory Coast – Declare Victory and Rule

In my earlier post on Ivory Coast, I praised the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for their boldness in suspending Ivory Coast from their bodies to protest the fact that the incumbent would not agree to leave.   Perhaps this was the wrong thing for the AU and ECOWAS to do.  Perhaps they should have kept Ivory Coast in and just recognize the winner of the poll – Allasane Ouattara.  Ouattara has asked governments to only recognize ambassadors he appoints, and he has asked the regional central bank, the BCEAO, to only respect his instructions regarding monetary issues and central bank transfers in Ivory Coast.   In an interesting blog post, Todd Moss at the Center for Global Development asks that one more door be shut to the incumbent and loser.   Todd and others argue in their post that Britain, France and the US, the main trading partners with Ivory Coast, should not honor any debts incurred by the incumbent government of Laurent Gbagbo.  This will mean Gbagbo can not borrow any money or ask foreign companies to pay up front for business concessions, thereby enabling him to survive financially.   If all these doors are closed to Gbagbo, Allasane Ouattara can declare victory and rule – which he is precisely what his game plan.  Perhaps the AU and ECOWAS should enable Outtara to do just that.   

Ivory Coast - Just Say No to the Incumbent and Loser of the Election

From all the information coming in, the opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara and his party clearly won the recent presidential elections in Cote D'Ivoire. The incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo lost, so should concede, and hand over power. Thabo Mbeki , the African Union (AU) mediator and former South African President should tell Gbagbo that, NO, he can not stay in power. No, he should not hope for a Kenya style power sharing agreement, for that would set an awful precedent on the continent. No, Gbagbo should not be pandered to, and allowed to hang on, as then all incumbents all over the continent upon losing elections will wait for an AU mediator.


It looks like things are on the right track. The AU has suspended Ivory Coast from the body. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has suspended Ivory Coast. The UN security council also thrown its support to Ouattara. President Obama has condemned Gbagbo. Ivory Coast shares a common currency, the CFA Franc, with several other African countries with a common issuing Central bank, the BCEAO, which has been asked to only honor orders from the Outtara group. There should be no excuses. Gbagbo must concede and leave. Let us see what happens next.